In today’s investing environment, it’s easy to feel unsettled. The markets are more volatile. The headlines are loud. And the actions of the current Trump administration—whether you see them as calculated, chaotic, or both—are stirring fresh uncertainty around everything from trade policy to interest rates.

At Prospera, we believe it’s precisely during moments like this that long-term thinking matters most.

Despite the short-term drama, the structure of global equity markets hasn’t changed in a meaningful way. The U.S. remains the world’s dominant value creator. And when you dig into the numbers, that story only becomes more compelling.

The S&P 500: A Long-Term Outperformer

So far in 2025, international stocks have taken the lead, with the MSCI All Country World ex-US Index outperforming the S&P 500. But zoom out—and a different picture emerges.

Since 2011, the S&P 500 has beaten the rest-of-world index 98% of the time over rolling 2-year periods, and by an average of 20 percentage points. That’s not just a streak. It’s a structural advantage.

Why the U.S. Still Wins

Global capital flows to where it’s best used. And over the past decade-plus, that has overwhelmingly meant the U.S.

Why?

Because U.S. markets, particularly the S&P 500, are rich in globally dominant companies that are still creating value at scale. These firms—most of them in the tech and innovation ecosystem—are not only leaders in their industries, they’re reshaping them. They’re scalable, data-rich, capital-efficient, and deeply embedded in the global economy.

Europe and Japan, by contrast, are no longer engines of innovation. They remain important economic players, but in equity terms, they’ve become yield-oriented, structurally slower-growing markets with limited ability to scale new technologies globally.

China, while still a powerful force in manufacturing and infrastructure, is becoming increasingly uninvestable for public market investors. Between regulatory opacity, capital controls, unpredictable policy shifts, and growing geopolitical risk, many institutional allocators are reassessing—or exiting—exposure altogether.

Volatility Is a Feature, Not a Flaw

Yes, the U.S. market is volatile. It always has been. Innovation brings disruption, and disruption brings volatility. But over time, that same innovation is what drives returns.

Trying to time the market based on the latest political headlines is rarely a winning strategy. Instead, investors should focus on staying allocated to where value is created—and where capital has the best chance of long-term compounding. That’s still the U.S.

Bottom Line

Global diversification still matters—particularly for managing risk and navigating different economic cycles. But for long-term growth, we believe the U.S. remains unmatched.

Despite political noise, market swings, and international rebounds, the structural case for U.S. equities—especially large-cap tech and innovation leaders—remains intact.

At Prospera, we’re staying focused. And we encourage our clients to do the same.

Because in the end, it’s not about predicting headlines—it’s about owning progress.

Have questions about your plan or how this may affect your portfolio? Talk to Prospera. We’re here to help you stay grounded, informed, and focused on what matters most.